With seedings, wild-card berths up for grabs, playoff races still exciting
APThe Rays are putting serious pressure on the Red Sox for the AL wild-card spot.
By ASK THE BASEBALL EXPERT
updated 4:57 p.m. ET Sept. 13, 2011
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Q: With two weeks left, there are only four teams in two AL divisional races, and three AL wild-card teams. All the races in the National League essentially are over. Is this the worst pennant race ever?
? Lawrence Anthony, Ocean Beach, Calif.
A: There certainly have been better Septembers since the wild-card format was adopted in 1995, but I wouldn't call this the worst-ever by any stretch.
The Rays are making a serious run at the Red Sox's wild-card spot, and the Rangers-Angels race could go down to the final series of the regular season, when they will meet in Anaheim. The Braves also are stumbling, allowing the Cardinals to have a shot at the NL wild card.
And, the seedings/home-field advantage still are very much up in the air, lending drama especially in the NL, where the Brewers and Diamondbacks don't really want to run into the Phillies in the first round.
There is plenty of evidence to show that Bud Selig's wild-card format has increased the number of teams in playoff races each season, as opposed to previous playoff setups.Before 1969, there were no divisions, just AL and NL pennant winners who met in the World Series. So in years when one team dominated, all others in that league had no playoff hopes whatsoever.
The four-division format began with the 1969 expansion, and although that obviously created more stretch-run races ? plus the league championship series round in the playoffs ? it still allowed for the occasional 1993-like situation.
That year, the Giants won 103 games but didn't make the playoffs because they finished one game behind the Braves in the NL West (yes, Atlanta used to be in the NL West, for some reason). ??????
That led to sentiment building for expanding the playoffs, and Selig instituted the current format to spark interest after the 1994 strike.
There are plusses and minuses with the proposed addition of a second wild-card team in each league ? which probably will be instituted in the next couple of years. Under that proposal, the two wild cards will meet in a one- or three-game series, while the three division winners in each league get to rest and set their rotations.
Although the format better rewards the division winners, it could eliminate some stretch-run drama with the two more guaranteed playoff spots.??
Q: As a huge Tigers fan, I truly hope Brad Penny is taken out of the playoff rotation. I'm sure you know what a train wreck he is every time he pitches. What is your take on that situation?
? Patrick Barrett, Eaton Rapids, Mich.
A: Well, there's no doubt about the first three in Jim Leyland's playoff rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Doug Fister.
A fourth starter could be needed a maximum of three times throughout the playoffs ? once in each potential series, and maybe less if Leyland decides to start Verlander up to three times in either ALCS or World Series (Games 1,4 and 7).
Rather than Penny, Rick Porcello is the likely No. 4 playoff starter. But that determination will be made in part by matchups with the opponents: Boston, New York and probably Texas.
Porcello (13-8, 4.83 ERA) was great in July (5-0, 3.06 ERA), but hasn't been nearly as effective since then (2-2, 5.95 ERA). He made one terrible start against the Red Sox (currently the Tigers' division series opponent), as six of 15 batters he faced scored.
But he was much better in starts against the Yankees (two runs allowed) and the Rangers (one run allowed).
As you mentioned, Penny has been highly ineffective since July 28: 3-3, 7.17 ERA in eight starts, only one in which he allowed fewer than four runs.
He hasn't faced Boston this season, and varied greatly in two early-season starts against the New York: 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER on April 2nd; 6 IP, 1 unearned run on May 3rd. In two starts against Texas, he allowed seven earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.
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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44505368/ns/sports-baseball/
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